🗿 Take the election to the bank

How to play the stock market for either candidate

November 05, 2024

In partnership with

GM. Remember, remember, the fifth of November, gunpowder, treason, and plot. 

The U.S. election is here. We’re not going to give you any election opinions or coverage. But, we are going to tell you how to try to get rich playing the outcome. 

Without Further Ado. ☕ *knuckle cracks* ☕ Let’s get into it.

How will the market react to the election? 

First, let’s talk about the market as a whole. Hope drives things up more than any other factor. In general, a large group of people have hope after every election. So, again in general, the market will go up a few months after the election. If you’re going to argue that isn’t the case this time, we won’t stop you, but this is the trend. 

This doesn’t mean there will be an immediate reaction as a whole this week. It should also be noted that with such a close race across the board, we probably won’t know for a few days who controls the presidency or the House. 

“This election comes amid a strong year for stocks that has pushed the broader market to all-time highs. With a gain of about 20%, 2024 has seen the best first 10 months of a presidential election year since 1936, according to Bespoke Investment Group.”

Given it’s been such a good year, can we really have a great close as well? Tbd. But if you’re still reading, I don’t think you care much about 2% on the S&P, so let’s get more specific. 

What if Trump wins?

There seems to be a consensus that a Trump victory will cause more volatility. Could be fun, so how can you play it? Here are some sectors that will almost certainly benefit from a victory for the host of The Apprentice:

Defense stocks

Simply, Trump will spend on the military. Some likely beneficiaries:

  • The VanEck Defense ETF

  • Booz Allen Hamilton

  • Palantir Technologies (might be too late on this one already)

  • Leidos

  • Lockheed Martin

  • Northrop Grumman

Oil and gas

Trump loves talking about bringing fossil fuels back within the border. Even if he can’t pull it off in practice, expect these guys to have a little pop:

  • EOG Resources

  • Exxon Mobil

  • Chevron

  • ConocoPhillips

Crypto

He’s already said he wants to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world. It’s also safe to assume Elon would get involved, and we already know his stance. Place your bets. 

Prison operators and firearms manufacturers

Probably the most controversial stance Trump has taken this time around: he’s going to crackdown on immigration. This could mean more jail and more people buying weapons. 

  • Geo Group

  • CoreCivic

  • Vista Outdoor Inc.

  • Smith & Wesson Brand Inc.

What if Kamala wins?

There is a general consensus that a Harris victory would lead to a little market depression, and especially for some of those who have gained this year on the backs of a possible Trump victory. She has proposed more regulations and a 28% corporate tax rate that would definitely have a short term negative impact. Here are some areas to consider for what would be the country’s first female president elect:

Green / Renewable Energy

This is an obvious one. Democrats win = renewable energy policy. 

  • NextEra Energy

  • Plug Power

  • First Solar

  • Bloom Energy

  • Rivian (With Elon on Trump’s side, maybe Rivian has an edge under kamala?)

Healthcare

This is our first negative play. Harris has pledged to institute caps on drug prices, like insulin. This could crush profits for big pharma, so play the under. 

  • Pfizer

  • Merck

  • Eli Lilly

Big Tech

It’s not a direct attack on them, but Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet have been the 3 highest tax payers already. A much higher corporate tax would probably have a negative impact on them and the rest of the silicon valley squad. 

Homebuilders

This is a less obvious one that may take some time to move, but Harris has pledged to build more homes and reduce costs for renters and home buyers through tax incentives.

  • D.R. Horton

  • KB Home

  • Lennar 

  • PulteGroup

  • Zillow Group

Closing thoughts

Of course everyone has their own opinion, DYOR, this is not financial advice blah blah BLAH. 

What will actually happen over the next 4 years? We have no idea. Look at the last 4. All we know for sure is that it seems the country has never been more divided. 

There’s volatility coming. 

Playing a few in both directions is probably wise. Having said that, we also see stories every election of some jabroni on Robinhood turning 2k into a million dollars off a single trade. 

Bet, or uhh I mean invest, wisely. 

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